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The third COVID channel will reach India by October. Survey of Reuters experts | Coronavirus epidemic News:


A third wave of coronavirus infections is likely to hit India by October, although although it will be better controlled than the last outbreak, the epidemic will remain a health threat for at least a year, according to a Reuters medical survey.

A special survey of 40 health professionals, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors from around the world on June 3-17 found that a significant increase in vaccines is likely to trigger a new outbreak.

Of those who predicted, at least 85 percent, or 24 to 21, said the next wave would run through October, including three who predicted it as early as August և September 12. The other three said from November to February.

More than 70 percent of experts, or 34 to 24, say that any new outbreak will be better controlled than the current one, which was much more devastating. Lack of vaccines, drugs, oxygen և hospital beds than the first small. increase in infections last year.

“It will be more controllable because there will be far fewer cases, because there will be more vaccines, there will be some degree of natural immunity from the second wave,” said Dr. Rapp Guleria, director of the All India Medical Science Institute. (AIIMS):

To date, India has fully vaccinated about 5 percent of its estimated 950 million eligible population, leaving millions vulnerable to infection and death.

Although most health professionals predicted that vaccine use would increase significantly this year, they warned against lifting the restrictions as soon as some states did.

Asked if children under the age of 18 were most at risk in the third possible wave, almost two-thirds of the experts, or 40 to 26, said yes.

“The reason they are vaccinated is completely virgin, because there is currently no vaccine for them,” said Dr. Pradip Banandur, head of the epidemiology department at the National Institute of Mental Health and Neurology (NIMHANS).

Experts warn that the situation may worsen.

“If children become infected in large numbers, we’s not ready, there is nothing you can do at the last minute,” said Dr. Dee Shetin, Narayana Health cardiologist and Karnataka State Epidemic Response Planning Advisor.

“It will be a completely different problem, as the country has very, very few pediatric intensive care units. It will be a disaster.”

But 14 experts say the children are not in danger.

Earlier this week, a senior health ministry official said children were vulnerable to infection, but that analysis showed a less serious impact on health.

Although 25 out of 38 respondents said that further versions of the coronavirus would not make existing vaccines ineffective, in response to a separate question, 30 out of 41 experts said that the coronavirus would remain a public health threat in India for at least a year.

“COVID-19 is a solvable problem because it was obviously easy to get a soluble vaccine. “In two years, India is likely to develop herd immunity through vaccines,” said Robert Gallo, director of the Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland and an international scientific adviser to the Global Virus Network.





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