The world’s leading commodity sellers predict a return of $ 100 a barrel of oil as investment in new supplies slows down until demand peaks and green alternatives slow down.
Leaders of Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura և Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday that $ 100 raw material is a real possibility, this week prices have already reached the highest level in the last two years, when the Brent brand moved. above $ 73 a barrel,
Prediction comes when there is concern Inflation is rising և Many commodities, such as copper, have already reached record levels, which have been boosted by supply shortages as the economy recovers.
Oil has lagged behind due to a slowdown in demand during the coronavirus epidemic, և fears that demand will peak in the next decade. But forecasts that prices will move much higher in the next few years have gained momentum in recent weeks.
This was stated by the CEO of Trafigura chair Jeremy Weir, one of the largest independent oil traders in the world FT Commodities Global Summit: On Tuesday, he was “worried” about the lack of spending on new supplies, as the world was not ready to jump to clean energy – complete electrification.
“I really think the potential for oil is reaching those numbers,” he told the summit. “Oil is not in demand. The supply situation is quite worrying. We have gone from 15 years of reserves to 10 years. We saw that five years ago, capital expenditures were $ 400 billion a year, just $ 100 billion a year. Therefore, there is a supply side concern. “I think that may lead to higher prices.”
Glencore oil trader Alex Sanna also said $ 100 oil seemed more likely.
“If you cut the supply without satisfying your demand at the same time, when you can have price fluctuations,” said Sanna. “You are really just one or two events away from the significant rise in oil prices.”
Oil has not sold more than $ 100 a barrel since 2014, when US shale supply grew. the latest, the so-called superbike to the end: At the beginning of this century, oil prices rose from about $ 10 a barrel to $ 100 in 2008, boosting growing Chinese demand. Prices, although volatile, averaged $ 100 per barrel over the next six years.
Russell Hardy, chief executive of Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, said $ 100 oil was a “probability”, although he believed it should have sufficient back-up capacity. Opec’s allies such as Russia continue restrict supply due to epidemic.
“Today, 5 million barrels of stockpiles are being withdrawn from the market,” Hardin said.
But Dec. F. Curry at Goldman Sachs, one of the major proponents of the oil rally over the past decade, insists the goods are looking at a new superbike as government stimulus boosts demand.
He believes that the demand for oil will increase as policy makers use spending on huge green infrastructure projects as a means of promoting inequality.
“We claim that every $ 2 trillion spent on green monkeys is a daily demand of 200,000 barrels of oil,” he said.
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In Vitol, Hardy said the trading house believes that oil demand will increase by around 2030, but at first the demand will not fall sharply, instead rising to the level of 100 million barrels per day, which first reached 2019.
“The main period of risk of oil supply disruption was 2025-2030,” he said, adding that due to growth in the developing world, it will take until 2040 for global oil demand to fall rapidly.
“Demand for oil is likely to continue to grow until 2030. Non-OECD emerging markets are clearly predominant,” he said.
Mercuria co-founder Marco Dunand says he expects oil demand to recover by an epidemic level of just over 100m / day by the end of the year, while Gunvor President Thorbjorn Thornquist has agreed that $ 100 oil could return. that high prices were needed to boost investment in the industry.
Some of the largest oil producers, such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell, have announced that their oil production will begin to decline in the coming years as they shift their investment to greener energy sources under investor pressure.
Equinor, Norway’s state-owned oil company, said on Tuesday it would focus 50 percent of its capital spending on renewable, low-carbon investments by 2030, but did not expect a drop in oil production by that date.