The biggest threat to the Tokyo Olympics is not the thousands of athletes and officials coming from abroad, but whether it will lead to greater mobility and socialization.
Although public concern in aponia focuses on the 100,000 athletes, coaches, officials and journalists who have began to arrive Seven weeks before the Games, epidemiologists said the biggest risk was a change in public behavior.
Their analysis helps explain why Japan’s apony has pushed the Olympics despite widespread opposition, as Tokyo may limit public outcry if it eventually decides to hold the Games without spectators.
“More than the number of people, how do they behave? That’s the question, “said the Japanese health administration, which has seen the official epidemiological council.
Tokyo և Japan The other major cities in Aponia remain Covid-19 state of emergency, urging up to 80% of calls from doctors, business leaders and և Japanese aponia society եցնել to stop the Olympics. Slow progress vaccination This means that most Japanese people are still vulnerable to the disease.
Japan has given at least one vaccine to at least 9 percent of its population.
Experts reveal four separate risks of holding games this summer. Olympic visitors spreading the coronavirus. increase mobility in Japanese society; burden on medical resources; : Threat of new Covid-19 versions entering the country.
Of these risks, most analysts believe that the risk is lower than that of cowboy Olympians.
University of Tokyo researcher Taysuke Nakata used a standard epidemiological model for the Olympics. Even in the case of extreme pessimistic assumptions. Only half of the visitors are vaccinated, none of them respect quarantine, և 100 infections are absent in border trials, they have little effect on the Covid-19 epidemic of impact aponia.
According to the Nakata model, the result of this scenario is an increase of about 15 infections per day in a few months.
“Intuitively, the number of Olympic visitors is less than 1% of Tokyo’s population,” he said. As the coronavirus is already prevalent in Japan, athletes and other visitors cannot accelerate the epidemic.
In fact, 80 percent of visitors will be vaccinated և they will enter Strict quarantine Covid-19 with daily tests, so their effect on infections in Japan aponia should be minimal.
A more serious threat is that the Olympics suggest that a society of change aponia is changing behavior. Tokyo monitors Covid-19 by closing restaurants at 8pm, asking them not to drink alcohol to limit its quantity high risk contact,
Filling stadiums with fans would have the opposite effect. “If the athlete you support wins a gold medal, then you will exclaim with joy, and then everyone will say, ‘Let’s have a drink,'” said Shigeru Omi, the doctor in charge of ger aponia Covid-19. testifying to the parliament.
Inside Nakata model, increased activity by Japanese society risks an increase of 90-120 infections per day for several months.
“Rather than the contact of athletes or regular people, it is much more possible to restrict the movement of Japanese society,” Omi said.
A third area of risk is the stress on the medical system, both in terms of the number of doctors and nurses needed to complete the Olympics and the pressure on more coronavirus cases. As a result, Japanese aponia clinicians tend to be more negative about games than epidemiologists.
“It will remove doctors from university-city hospitals,” said Satoshi Hori, an infection control expert at Tokyo’s Juntendo University. “They are unpaid volunteers. “They are currently busy in hospitals, so it will lead to a shortage of staff.”
Hori said the Olympics should be canceled. “It’s practical to keep it in a balloon for a short event, but having so many events in so many places during the week, can it really be bubbling?” He asked.
The final danger is that the game visitor will bring a new version of Covid-19 C aponia. Naoto Uyama, head of the Oto Aponia Doctors’ Union, even suggested that hosting the Games could trigger the Tokyo Olympics.
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However, most popular versions, such as those first found in the UK աստ India, are already available in Japan Aponia, although the latest version found in Vietnam is not. If the Covid-19 version did not reach Japan aponia, the additional risk associated with the Olympics would be much greater.
Putting all the risks together, Japan Aponia is thinking about how to manage the Olympics, not move forward, said a health official. “During Covid-19 we held various sports events, from sumo to baseball. “We have the experience of keeping the coronavirus at current levels without rigid blockade.”
Until the government loses its temper in recent weeks, Japan Aponia will soon try to repeat the trick while hosting the country’s biggest sporting event.